Arctic Blast Or Hot, Hot, Hot?
Some scare-mongering media outlets say there is a raging heatwave on the cards for September. Others claim a cold snap will plunge us into winter-like weather. Trust your Eyes – we have the facts.
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So, September Heatwave, Fearsome Flooding or Arctic Blast – what does the Met Office really predict?
Are we heading for a sixth heatwave in September?
‘UK weather maps plunge to 6C before possible sixth heatwave in September’ is just one of several headlines suggesting that another spell of significant heat could be on the horizon.
The latest Met Office outlook does indicate that temperatures may trend above average at times into September.
While hotter spells cannot be ruled out later in the August to September period, confidence decreases significantly beyond the next week or two. At present, a return to the exceptional heat experienced earlier this month does not appear to be the most likely outcome.
The dominant weather signal for the remainder of August is for a more unsettled pattern, with frequent showers, spells of rain and temperatures generally close to seasonal averages.
Singing in the rain
The current forecast points towards low pressure remaining influential through the rest of August, bringing more widespread rainfall than many areas have seen recently. Temperatures are generally expected to remain near or a little above average.
Met Office Warns Britain Could Be In For September Heatwave
This headline has been bandied about, yet although the longer-range forecast does suggest temperatures could trend above average as we move through early September, particularly towards southern parts of the UK, it also highlights an ongoing unsettled pattern, with wetter-than-average weather likely to continue, particularly towards the North or North-West.
This means that while a heatwave remains one possible outcome later in the period, it is far from certain and is only one of several potential scenarios being considered by forecast guidance.
Is a polar vortex change bringing a freezing cold snap?
The Met Office forecast does indicate a marked drop in temperatures compared with the heatwave that affected parts of the UK earlier in August. Through the second half of the week commencing 17 August, many areas will experience temperatures close to average, while northern parts of Scotland could feel rather cool under a brisk northerly wind.
However, a return to more seasonable temperatures is very different from a significant cold snap. Whilst some places will experience cooler than average conditions, current forecast guidance does not indicate widespread wintry conditions. Temperatures are more likely to be around or a little above average than significantly below average as we move into September.
Frost reception
It is also usual that the first air frosts of Autumn would be seen across parts of Scotland in September and even further south, although that is less common. The first grass frosts of Autumn, indicative of low single-figure air temperatures, usually occur in September across most of the UK.
Following clear skies and lighter winds, some sheltered rural locations may experience chilly nights during late August and early September. However, isolated overnight temperatures are not representative of daytime conditions across the UK as a whole.
The current outlook continues to point towards daytime temperatures remaining broadly near seasonal norms. While some northern areas may feel cool beneath cloud, with showers and fresh winds, widespread unusually cold weather is not currently forecast.
Picture: What is the weather really doing between the end of August and September?
A September heatwave remains possible, particularly in southern parts of the UK, but it is far from guaranteed – and current Met Office guidance offers little support for headlines predicting an Arctic plunge into winter
