Autumn Leaves Summer Behind

Business for installers in October was worse than in September but way better than in August. So what does the move from autumn into winter hold in store?

Neil Cooper-Smith, the senior data analyst at Business Pilot, said: “October's figures suggest a more measured pace of activity as the window and door retail market moves further into the final quarter of the year.“Lead and sales volumes have eased following September's rebound, while average order values have fallen back from their recent high. Conversion rates, however, remain above 40%. Shorter lead times suggest installers are continuing to manage workloads effectively.”

Homeowners may be adjusting the scale of planned improvements or prioritising more manageable projects as household spending pressures continue to influence purchasing decisions.

Neil Cooper-Smith, Senior Data Analyst, Business Pilot

Market stability

Cooper-Smith continued: “September's Barometer highlighted renewed momentum following the summer slowdown, with stronger leads, sales and order values supported by consistent conversion performance. October's data suggests that some of this activity has moderated, although the underlying picture remains relatively stable across several key measures.

“Lead volumes fell from 113.3 in September to 109.0 in October, a reduction of almost 4% month-on-month. Despite this easing, enquiries remain comfortably ahead of August's figure of 99.5, suggesting that the market has retained some of the momentum gained as homeowners returned to their usual routines after the summer.

“Sales activity followed a similar pattern, falling from 53.5 in September to 51.8 in October, a reduction of just over 3%. The smaller movement in sales compared with leads suggests installers are continuing to make effective use of the opportunities entering their pipelines.”

Converting leads

Conversion rates also remained broadly stable, moving from 40.9% in September to 40.2% in October. Although this represents a reduction of 0.7 percentage points, conversion has now remained above 40% for four consecutive months. This consistency suggests installers are maintaining a relatively strong level of sales effectiveness despite fluctuations in enquiry volumes.

Project values

The most significant change came in average order values, which fell from £4,344 in September to £3,930 in October. This represents a reduction of approximately 9.5% month-on-month and brings average project values below August's figure of £4,094.

The movement suggests a change in the value of projects progressing to order, following several months of improvement. Cooper-Smith said: “Homeowners may be adjusting the scale of planned improvements or prioritising more manageable projects as household spending pressures continue to influence purchasing decisions. For installers, this places greater importance on understanding the value and profitability of the work being secured.”

Getting the job done

Lead times shortened from 23.8 days in September to 22.5 days in October, a reduction of 1.3 days. This is the shortest average recorded across the latest three-month period and suggests businesses have some flexibility to respond to changing workloads as activity settles.

Cooper-Smith said: “Taken together, October's figures suggest that activity has settled following September's rebound. Lead and sales volumes remain above August's levels, conversion performance continues to hold above 40% and lead times have shortened. The reduction in average order value is the clearest area for installers to monitor, particularly as businesses assess the balance between sales volumes, project values and profitability.

Inflation

“The wider economic backdrop continues to place pressure on household spending. UK CPI inflation increased to 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% in August, with higher transport costs, particularly motor fuels, contributing to the rise. The renewed increase in inflation adds to the financial considerations facing homeowners when planning discretionary improvements.

“The Bank of England maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% at its September meeting, with policymakers continuing to assess the impact of higher energy costs and persistent inflationary pressures. These conditions are likely to remain an important influence on consumer borrowing and confidence as the year draws to a close.”

Consumer confidence

Consumer sentiment has also weakened. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index fell to -24 in October, following September's reading of -13. Cooper-Smith said: “This change suggests households are becoming more cautious about their financial outlook, potentially affecting the timing and scale of larger home improvement projects.

“For the home improvement sector, October's figures reflect a market where opportunities remain available, although purchasing decisions may be becoming more considered. The continued stability in conversion rates is encouraging, while the reduction in average order values reinforces the importance of maintaining a healthy balance between securing work and protecting margins.

“For installers, the priority will be understanding which enquiries are most likely to progress, monitoring changes in project values and ensuring that sales activity continues to translate into profitable work.

“With household budgets under pressure, effective follow-up, clear communication and careful management of the sales pipeline will remain essential.

“This is where Business Pilot continues to provide valuable support. By giving installers real-time visibility across leads, conversions, order values and operational performance, it enables businesses to identify changing patterns quickly, respond effectively to new opportunities and make informed decisions based on their own data.”

Picture: Business Pilot is the business management software for window and door installers.

Autumn activity steadies as order values soften

August / September / October 2026

For more information visit www.businesspilot.co.uk